Netherlands Elections: Key Players and Central Topics in Early Election
Voters in the Holland are set to possibly exchange the most rightwing administration in recent memory with a more centrist and pragmatic alliance during early general elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were called after the breakdown of the outgoing government in June, when far-right figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective governing alliance.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks established a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, NSC party and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too controversial for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his allies declined to implement a radical comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to guard frontiers, rejecting all asylum seekers, shutting down asylum centers and sending home all Syria nationals.
While support for the PVV has declined, polls indicate the far-right, Islam-critical party is once more projected to win the most seats in parliament. However, major Netherlands political formations have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are predicted to gain representation, but none is expected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the future Netherlands administration, generally an significant force on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could take several months.
How the System Works and Political Landscape
There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen quadrennially – earlier if administrations fail – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any party that wins less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in much of Europe, Dutch politics have been marked in recent decades by a significant drop in backing of the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from over four-fifths in the eighties to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this process has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be returned, the army to combat "urban violence", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the early 90s, and once more in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the last election.
However, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who entered politics just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is on track to secure comparable seats, according to polling averages.
Led by the experienced ex-EU official its leader, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be important players in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is on course to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a campaign focused on residential construction (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is predicted to decline to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its leader, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decrease. It is proposing corporate tax reductions and reduced social benefits.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from another far-right party – the previously successful, now scandal-hit FvD – and seems to be benefiting from an exodus of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could secure fourteen mandates.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are expected to lose out, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The top issues so far have been immigration, with several – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the chronic Netherlands issue of housing (the country is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are feasible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the government program. This often requires months.
Multiple options look plausible, typically including a mix of parties from moderate left and moderate right. The most probable, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and several minor groups possibly incorporating the conservative party.
