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During the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán stood out as the exclusive EU chief to endorse the Republican candidate. This support was expected, considering Mr Orbán's adoption of controversial notions like the "great replacement" theory and his suppression of media freedom. Observers have noted that Hungary's premier essentially wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon lauding him as a precursor to Trump.

Campaign Assistance Before Hungarian Elections

In recent days, with crucial Hungarian elections merely approaching in six months, the American leader returned some political favors. With Orbán pursues a fifth consecutive term presiding over a nation he calls an non-liberal system, his political group is behind in the polls. An official trip to Washington produced beyond a few signed Maga baseball caps; it secured highly beneficial campaign boosts.

Special Treatment and Economic Protections

Even though previously instructing European nations on the need to eliminate all fuel purchases from Russia, and threatening penalties against states continuing to buy Russian oil, the US president agreed to grant a unique waiver for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian oil. As Orbán stated, the Trump administration also pledged to offer a “financial shield” to Hungary's capital if it runs into any future difficulties, given that the European Union continues to withhold substantial EU funds to the nation due to rule-of-law breaches.

The details of this agreement remain vague. Yet the US president illustrated his inclination to help out like-minded partners as the US provided a a $20 billion loan to Argentina’s far-right president, the South American leader. Although Orbán did not secure a presidential tour to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting nevertheless was a successful endeavor.

Brussels' Worries and Global Ramifications

Among European leaders, Trump's actions probably further underlined the geopolitical stakes of the coming election, ahead of which the moderate contender, the rival candidate, has a comfortable lead in surveys. Heads of state have learned not to look for principled consistency from the Trump administration, and accept the American leader's moves to diminish the EU. Yet Mr Orbán’s exemption – which came at the price of an pledge to purchase American energy resources – flagrantly undermines European goals to phase out imports of Russian energy by the target date.

• Since 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian petroleum, these two countries, have contributed well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, Hungary has repeatedly used the blocking vote to stymie progress in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As Europe strives to develop a cohesive plan for backing Ukraine, and enhancing its leverage in any future peace negotiations, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Opposition Stance

Péter Magyar has refrained from promising a significant change on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while highlighting the need for Hungary to begin operating as a productive EU partner. After enduring repeated disruptions, Brussels can only wait and hope. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, such as the support for minority protections and the independence of civil society institutions, has long been a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His persistent opposition on Ukrainian matters threatens to weaken its future security.